A Massive Failure
The test of understanding Bitcoin is whether you think exiting it is ever a good idea. Trading in and out bets that you can out-think a decentralized system fed more information than you could ever gather, and that bet is how people fail.
The one-minute version
Trading in and out of Bitcoin, timing tops and rebalancing into a diversified portfolio.
None of that matters because none of that actually affects Bitcoin. At the end of the day, nothing affects Bitcoin except the amount of energy that is going into the system.13:13
Don't wait for price. Just put it in. Just put it in because it's going up forever.30:16
And that is bullish and don't fuck it up, man.37:37
Every passage, on the record.
- 00:31Claim
Once you have done that, you've made the allocation, you go from 1% to 5% to 10% to 20 to 30, all the way up to 100%, to where you're exited from the fiat system. After that, you can build conviction through learning, and instead of having to filter through the noise, the perfect signal is provided, and that perfect signal you can then use as a concrete foundation from which to build other theories.
- 01:31Claim
You know that there is no noise inside of the Bitcoin system, and if there's no noise inside of the Bitcoin system, that allows you then to be much more certain that you are operating from a position of strength, and if that's the case, you don't have to think about that anymore.
- 02:41Claim
They don't even have to learn how to deal with the problem, they don't even know what the problem is in the first place. They can't identify who's taking advantage of them. They didn't even know that it was possible for them to be taken advantage of, yet never in the physical world had any touch points with individuals who would look to do them harm, and yet it's been happening their entire lifetime.
- 03:16Idea
Looking out for their well-being means allowing them or presenting to them the opportunity to be more efficient at transforming chaos into order, to transform things from a state of increasing entropy to lowering entropy in their local environment so as to make them more efficient at energy expenditure, energy transformation, so that in the future they will be more self-reliant.
- 04:06Quote
It doesn't care whether or not Bob gets in at a certain price level, or it doesn't even know what a price level is. It doesn't have any information from the outside world. All that it can do is what it does perfectly.
- 05:42Claim
This is by far the most disappointing, yet the most prevalent of all. I would call them just not Bitcoiners, because Bitcoiners understand. This really is the threshold for how well you understand the system: if you think opting out at any time or exiting the system is going to be beneficial to you at all, that is the question where if you answer that one way, you understand Bitcoin.
- 06:15Claim
If you don't know the solution that it solves for, then you don't understand the tool. If you don't understand the tool, you don't know how it can be leveraged, and if you don't know how it can be leveraged, then you're missing out on just how inefficient the current system is, and if it's important for you, it's important for the entire extended order to move away, to advance on the technology that we already have in place for being able to allocate energy efficiently.
- 06:15Reference
It's important for the entire extended order to move away, to advance on the technology that we already have in place for being able to allocate energy efficiently.
- 06:50Claim
It is probably the large majority of Bitcoin content that is out there is based on the most fiat thing that you can do with Bitcoin: the idea that you're going to trade into a position. Think about how fiat that mindset actually is. What are you doing when you trade in and out of position? You couldn't provide less utility.
- 07:29Claim
Think about the balls you have to have to think that you are going to better the entire extended order, all of the information that is being processed by every single node in the extended order's network, that you're going to be more efficient than them and be able to time exactly when this mass group of decentralized operators are going to realize the gigantic problem that is at hand.
- 08:12Analogy
This is you worried about a rising tide when on the horizon, just over how far you can see, is a tidal wave, a tsunami sized wave, and you're trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller. Think about how inefficient that is, think about how crazy that is, that you think you're that smart.
- 08:42Claim
If you understand the use case for Bitcoin and what it does better than anything else, you think then that the ultimate value that you can provide is taking energy from individuals who are less efficient at allocation than you are. You're going to hold that for a period of time and then give some back to be able to build up your stack of energy. That's the most useful thing you can do.
- 09:13Claim
That's the beauty of Bitcoin: you don't have to know anything of the outside world apart from what you do to transform energy from disordered to ordered. That's all you have to concern yourself with because the allocation system, which is Bitcoin, does all of the other work.
- 10:31Analogy
It's a real easy way to fuck this up: to think that you're too smart, that I'm just going to pop in, I'm going to pop out. If you're popping in and popping out, you're popping in to a better system and then popping out to a shittier system. It's like I don't want to use the excavator, I'd rather go back to the shovel because I think I can pick up the excavator for cheaper later on. Just dig the hole. Dig as many holes as you can with the excavator.
- 11:03Claim
You have no idea what you are now investing in, not even investing in, what you are choosing to participate in. You have to think how bad are you getting completely and utterly fucked in your position now. And the only way that you cannot be fucked is to choose Bitcoin.
- 11:03Reference
Once you do, all you have to do is you do the Michael Saylor. That's all you do. Every time there's free cash flow, you sweep it into Bitcoin.
- 11:33Claim
No matter where you are physically located in the known universe, it is better to have it in Bitcoin than it is to have it in anything else. Anything else is a lower quality product. And if the only thing that separates you from the higher quality product is yourself, that's it, there's nothing stopping you.
- 12:09Claim
Every choice that you make to invest excess energy in something that is not Bitcoin is the poor choice. Now that you know that, that puts a lot of pressure on you, the individual, to make the better choice.
- 12:42Claim
Think about how few people have Bitcoin now. Maybe it's 1% that have anything over, and I'm not just talking about small amounts of exposure, I'm talking about meaningful amounts of exposure. What is the number? It's so small.
- 13:13Quote
None of that matters because none of that actually affects Bitcoin. At the end of the day, nothing affects Bitcoin except the amount of energy that is going into the system.
- 13:49Claim
The bit is, are you stupid enough to fuck this up? And the overwhelming answer is yes. And that is a worry from the fiat perspective, that there are this many people who will be able to identify that there is a problem, have seen that there's a solution, but be so scarred from a fiat education perspective that they will not be able to embrace what a better system looks like.
- 14:23Prediction
If Bitcoin continues on the path that it has been on for the last 14 years, and it is as successful as I'm imagining, because there is no stopping it, because you can't kill it, because it is more efficient than the current product, and the current system is not just 10x less efficient, it's a thousand.
- 14:23Analogy
We have the excavator, but it is running on vegetable oil. As soon as we get diesel, and as soon as we get a network to be able to deliver that diesel to our house, not only do we not have to go fetch it, it's just going to be there on tap and then we'll never have to refuel the thing again.
- 15:38Claim
I guess the problem stems from you not being bullish enough on the trajectory of the masses realizing that there's an inferior product, and that a superior product will not only bring the individual a higher quality of life, but by them choosing a higher quality of life, everyone around them in their community automatically has a higher quality of life.
- 16:37Idea
It's an allocation system that is based off of all of the information that it's being fed from who is willing to remove energy from the system and what are they going to do with it. If they're not going to return with more, they are punished by not having access to claiming as much ownership of the protocol as everyone else.
- 17:13Prediction
They are incredibly incentivized to be successful in whatever they are doing so that they can come back to the system with more energy, so that they will have ownership over more, because ownership over more of the system as a whole, that is how success will be measured in the future.
- 17:44Claim
If you have access to less of the system, you are less secure, you have a higher probability in the future of being exposed to the dangers of the physical world. That is the game we are playing, order versus disorder, information generation versus stagnation. Technology has shown us that it is inherently deflationary and that it's only speeding up.
- 18:20Prediction
There will be that wave. There will be the day that we've talked about where you wake up and you can no longer get into the system. And if you're out of the system because you wanted to time it or you were listening to somebody read the tea leaves, what are you doing?
- 18:56Quote
The danger is there of being completely swept away, left behind, gone for good, never going to be able to even sniff a level of quality in your life that you would have had access to if you had just acted quicker.
- 19:35Claim
The current system is in a death spiral and they have to do certain things in order to continue to maintain the status quo, and there is one way that you can watch this entire clown show go down in flames and have zero exposure to it: to be perfectly protected by a wall of encrypted energy that is bigger and stronger than anything before it or that can come in the future.
- 20:21Claim
Because of the incentive model, because of the game theory behind it, it makes sense that you would much rather just allocate energy to the protection of the system than you would trying to break it down. And that will continue forever.
- 20:21Quote
Because it exists now, there is no going back. There is no unseen this.
- 20:52Claim
If there's no unseen this, then that means that people that are exposed to it earlier than you are winning more than you are, and you can do nothing to stop them from winning unless you join them, because you cannot kill the system, and it's significantly more efficient at the whole reason the tool solves for in the first place.
- 21:30Claim
I'm going to then rebalance, cut my winners and rebalance to my losers so I can get diversity, a portfolio that aligns with the textbook that I read from 1996. What the fuck are you talking about? You have no idea what you've done to your future self, and your next of kin, and your entire lineage in the future, if you had just acted with a little bit more urgency.
- 22:12Claim
You basically get a thousand X increase in efficiency for zero cost. It doesn't cost you anything to allocate from one system to another, well, marginally, some exchange fees, less than one percent, to transfer from a system where you're exposed to a bunch of buffoons who you shouldn't trust.
- 22:55Analogy
This is like the Instagram of real life. If you only had to deal with somebody for five minutes once a month because it took you four weeks to get to a meeting by horse and buggy, well, then that person could put up a front. But if you're able to communicate with the outside world at any time and have a peek behind the curtain of what makes individuals tick, it doesn't take long to realize there is a vast sea of complete and utter dipshits.
- 24:00Claim
I know there's enough information to know that you are probably not looking out for my best interest, and if that's the case, I would rather assume all of that responsibility for my own decisions, for my own well-being, but I also want to shield myself from any of your actions that would be harmful to me, because you might do something stupid to yourself which then creates a ripple effect that might affect me.
- 25:46Analogy
Would you rather have something that is indestructible, that will never rot, that will never diminish in any way in its value, in fact it'll only go up in value, or would you rather have a pallet of strawberries? A pallet of strawberries is great, it certainly has its issues though, if you were going to try and live off a pallet of strawberries for the next five years.
- 26:26Claim
There's no exiting. Once you're in the system, it's a better way to operate. I'm going to stay there shielded from you as long as possible, and from others like you, because those are the only people that are in charge of the fiat system, people that would want to take advantage of you.
- 27:36Claim
What properties does that other system have that you think are more beneficial than having a global demand for your store of value? Is it going to be real estate, thousands of problems? Is it going to be some other financial instrument, counterparty risk?
- 28:39Claim
There's not a single way that the fiat system is better than the Bitcoin system, and once you understand that, you know that there's no going back. You never see anybody switch sides completely. Nobody ever comes into the Bitcoin world, understands what's at stake, and goes, not for me, I'm out. You just don't see that.
- 28:39Reference
Maybe you'll see it amongst folks like Bill Miller or somebody who are doing these big large trades that will get in and get out.
- 29:43Idea
But on this other wall, you can put yourself in a position where you aren't exposed to any of that getting worse, in fact it only gets better, which is why the positive attitudes come from in the space. You're unrugable, be unrugable, be unfuckable. If you found a power, if you found a technology that would allow you to be unfuckable, well, guess what? That's better than being fucked.
- 30:16Quote
Don't wait for price. Just put it in. Just put it in because it's going up forever.
- 30:48Claim
If you can understand how bad the system is, well then you know how powerful the solution is going to be. The solution has been given to the extended order with the vast majority of individuals unaware that there's a problem to begin with.
- 31:22Analogy
You'll have somebody exiting, the movie theater is on fire, somebody's going to get out, they're right standing right at the exit door, they're going to get out, and then they're going to rush back in because they can get a better seat now, because everybody's left their seat trying to get to the exit.
- 31:54Quote
This is a note to the future of humanity, actually to the past of humanity, because you're going to be listening to this.
- 32:31Claim
The most important thing you can be doing is transforming as much energy from inaccessible to accessible as possible. That is what value is. Value is the utility of energy that is readily accessible to you. Do you have lots of it? No. Get more. How do you get more? By transforming it.
- 33:33Claim
What you have to do more of is transforming energy in the real world. You have to find a way to create order, to generate information, the physical embodiment of order itself. That's all you have to do. Be valuable to the people around you and then sweep that value into Bitcoin and you're going to win.
- 34:04Claim
We shouldn't be outsmarting each other. We should be combining to find the best place for returns on our collective energy. And that's exactly what Bitcoin is doing for the extended order.
- 35:15Prediction
If you're smart, you wait. And if you're real smart, we're going to come back to this podcast in 10 years, and there will have been nothing that you could do with your time that would have returned more than just sweeping excess reserves into a form of storage that no one can touch, manipulate, fabricate, dilute.
- 35:46Prediction
Yet still somebody listening to this, I guarantee somebody listening to this is going to fuck it up for sure. For sure.
- 36:23Prediction
One day you're going to wake up and it will be through the roof. The black hole, the gravitational pull that will occur and just suck the entire productive capacity of the extended order into it in a fell swoop.
- 37:04Claim
So if you don't know why Bitcoin is superior, this is me telling you that you should stop everything that you're doing and find out why that might be the case. Why would the confidence be so high in a technology that at least from the outside looks to be so inconsequential?
- 37:37Claim
If every exchange becomes better, your life becomes better because the information grows. And if the information grows, that makes us more efficient at generating future information, and the more information we have access to, the more that we can control the environment around us and turn disorder into order.
- 37:37Quote
And that is bullish and don't fuck it up, man.
- 38:15Claim
People still conflate Bitcoin with some other shit coin and have no idea the difference, and they're so easily bamboozled. If you understand Bitcoin, it shocks you as to just how misinformed or how miseducated the vast majority of the population is on a number of different subjects, not just a little bit, a lot.
- 38:46Claim
On the flip side, there's a known group of individuals who at least have recognized that energy, the most important piece of the pie, is best looked after by this system, and allocating towards it is going to be beneficial for you and for me and for everybody in the future.