What Winning Looks Like

Every passage, on the record.

1. 00:00Prediction

   Bitcoin is winning and it will continue to win all the time until you die. It will win forever. It's going up forever.

2. 00:00Claim

   You are going to be thought of as someone who is wise in the peer group around you because you made the decision to allocate to a better money.

3. 00:00Quote

   Bitcoin is winning and it will continue to win all the time until you die.

4. 00:31Claim

   Why is it working? Because it's better. Better is better.

5. 00:31Prediction

   What's going to happen in the future? Is better going to win out over worse? Probability wise, I'm going to put my chips on, yes, better is going to win.

6. 01:41Claim

   Everything that they think is true, you think is wrong. And they might have 99 people on their side, but you're willing to bet everything that you have that they are wrong.

7. 01:41Idea

   And if you're right, you get all of their energy. You get it all. And they get none of it.

8. 02:14Claim

   There is a team that is getting decimated every single day lining up to get absolutely slaughtered every day.

9. 02:46Prediction

   That's when we're going to see the fear in FOMO kick in. We haven't seen that.

10. 03:17Claim

    A bet for Bitcoin is you're shorting the fiat system at the same time. Even if you didn't know anything about Bitcoin, the alternative is you don't want to be long the fiat system.

11. 03:49Claim

    There's something that can take your leverage to damn near infinity. That's how hard you can bet against the system continuing.

12. 04:23Claim

    The hardest part to wrap your mind around is that the other person who is short Bitcoin is being taken advantage of on top of getting their ass kicked, and they're also being gas lit into thinking that they have some amount of autonomy inside of that system.

13. 04:57Claim

    You are being stolen from every second of the day. It's hard to come to grips with. It's a little bit painful to realize that.

14. 05:28Analogy

    What if we just stumbled upon a fucking machine that will allow us to just mow down the entire system? Would that be a good thing? Yeah. And everybody has a seat, right? There's seats enough for everybody.

15. 06:04Claim

    Why have Google searches for Bitcoin been going down? Because nobody gives a shit, right? Nobody cares. Where's the money coming from here?

16. 06:04Reference

    Look at the amount of capital that's flowing into the ETFs. Yes. Does it remove friction? Absolutely. Does it make it easy for everybody? Absolutely.

17. 06:04Event

    Look at the numbers, you look at the amount of capital that's flowing into the ETFs. All I have to do is allocate one or two percent and all of a sudden I'm winning.

18. 07:13Claim

    You're going to have to come up with something that is going to entice me to trade because I know that it's the apex property, because I know that makes me incredibly dangerous, because I don't want any of your dog shit stuff.

19. 07:13Quote

    Give me fucking nothing because I'm holding the apex.

20. 07:51Claim

    The man increases. Those gaps get bigger and bigger and bigger.

21. 08:24Claim

    Anything that I can think of to transform energy from disorderly into orderly is less efficient than simply following Bob's strategy.

22. 08:59Claim

    This is the only time, the only time that anybody will have to know how the system actually works. They'll be the core developers, this little niche little group, probably the same size it is right now. Everybody else just goes, of course, that's why wouldn't you?

23. 08:59Analogy

    This is again, it's almost like looking back in history with perfect 2020 vision, realizing after the fact, after everything has already played up.

24. 08:59Analogy

    If you were in Argentina 20 years ago, what is the best strategy if you had a million dollars? Is it just to let it sit there in pesos? No, obviously that's a terrible play.

25. 09:34Claim

    Time is something that will make you extremely poor or it will make you extremely rich. It'll make you poor if you wait, because while you're getting up to speed, everyone else is already taking advantage of the tool.

26. 10:05Claim

    Now imagine in the Bitcoin world when you tell them how you won, that as you tell them and they start to adopt the strategy, you get stronger. You can make everyone better off just by doing the right thing. That's the incentive.

27. 10:36Quote

    What do they call that function in software? That is the tool. That's the one solution.

28. 12:11Claim

    Once you realize how it can happen, how you've been getting screwed and how the system is designed to make it easy and practical, that's when your mind is really blown when it all starts to appear as though it's this grand orchestration of energy versus the have-nots.

29. 13:22Prediction

    It's just like how long is it going to take before we get to those days where it jumps 50% in a day. I know those are coming.

30. 14:56Analogy

    I am the bottom of the well. All I have to do is wait. The forces that they are fighting, it's like trying to hold back the tide from changing.

31. 14:56Quote

    I am the bottom of the well. All I have to do is wait.

32. 15:30Quote

    I am the nightmare of no-coin or dreams.

33. 16:04Claim

    Wall Street is pumping bags like nobody's business because they realize what number go up means, and then they realize what it's all about.

34. 16:35Claim

    They continue to play the game that they have played for the last hundred years. I don't want to give back less than I got. But if there's an opportunity to make more, I want to siphon as many of those increased gains as I can.

35. 17:06Prediction

    While that's going on, at the same time, Bitcoin itself is eliminating the need for these intermediaries in the first place. They are eliminating the need for asset allocation, for management, at the scale that it is at now.

36. 17:06Reference

    If I just follow the Michael Saylor playbook, I can win forever.

37. 18:12Claim

    Wall Street removes friction faster than any other entity in the extended order because they can see the race, they can see the pressure building.

38. 18:42Quote

    This is the left-hand side of the bell curve of IQ. This is just Bitcoin. The solution is just Bitcoin.

39. 19:12Claim

    If there was a hard money standard now, it wouldn't be as impactful because we would already be utilizing the extended order at a much higher efficiency level.

40. 19:47Analogy

    There's a big difference between missing out on 100% gains and fearing that everything that you have is going to zero. You have to beat the other folks in that room to get out first or you are super fucked.

41. 19:47Quote

    You have to beat the other folks in that room to get out first or you are super fucked.

42. 20:55Event

    In 12 hours, the price doubled in the Egyptian pound. It's up 330% in 6 months.

43. 20:55Claim

    We are seeing complete repricing of paper in real time via the measuring stick that is Bitcoin. Countries and citizens having irrecoverable days and hours.

44. 21:26Claim

    The snowball has rolled so many times down the hill. It's built up so much momentum that they are never going to be able to push it back the other way. There is no immune system that the larger fiat currencies have that the smaller ones don't.

45. 21:58Claim

    If you think from an evolutionary standpoint, who are the entities that survive: the ones that take that 1% into account and go, maybe I will put a little bit into understanding this. The other people die off.

46. 22:46Reference

    Michael Saylor recently on his commenting the name for people that save in Fiat-Wulf is poor.

47. 23:18Idea

    I want that first rage entrant. I want rage buyers.

48. 23:51Claim

    The star players on their own team are the ones handing over the energy and they're sacrificing the week so as to keep the system going for as long as possible.

49. 23:51Idea

    The increase in my ability to wield energy reserves is directly related to those trying to steal the energy in the fiat world. Without them the problem would be far less drastic. I wouldn't get near the return.

50. 24:23Claim

    It is a matter of time. It's a matter of change in the entropy of the universe. If it continues to increase, this will work.

51. 24:23Quote

    The ship has sailed. Now it's just a waiting game for everyone that has their tickets.

52. 24:55Open question

    It'll happen on Wall Street, it's happening now there, and it'll happen higher up than that. It'll happen lower down and it won't be uneventful and it won't be a peaceful handover.

53. 26:07Prediction

    If a whole bunch of individuals stand up and say, yeah, I think I'm right and I think everybody here is wrong, that might not have the best impact short term, but long term, everyone is going to remember. People are going to change teams.

54. 26:07Open question

    The whole question of it is, is it a good time to get into Bitcoin? That question will be dead.

55. 26:41Quote

    It's a money printing tool by removing the ability to print money.

56. 26:41Claim · condensed

    This worldview will simply be out competed. It can't go on from an evolutionary point of view.

57. 27:13Reference

    The digital property narrative from sailor, that's a pretty smart angle for people, for getting people on side. He switched teams with a billion fucking dollars, more than a billion dollars, and he's super articulate.

58. 28:19Claim

    Once you start thinking in Bitcoin, it becomes your default unit of account. It is that switch that flicks that person into efficiency overdrive. Every decision gets better. All information produced by that single entity that has made that switch becomes significantly more useful.

59. 28:50Open question

    If you get everything you want, well, then the important question becomes, what do you want?

60. 28:50Claim

    By studying it, you become a more useful person. By becoming a more useful person, you add value. By adding value, the group gets more resilient. The group outlook improves. More people seek out the group and the benefits continue.

61. 29:23Claim

    In the future, the extended order will just learn true economics or just absorb true economics because of the existence of sound money. You can't hide reality in a sound money world. All the noise drops away.

62. 29:55Quote

    You can try all of the fiat nonsense, but you'll have less Bitcoin for it.

63. 29:55Open question

    What if it doesn't come? What if the panic doesn't come? What if it takes a long time? It's obviously lasted this long.

64. 30:30Prediction · condensed

    If we're not right, you'll still win at 40 percent a year, if you discount the first four years of Bitcoin, or over 100 percent a year if you include those first four years.

65. 31:02Claim

    By contrast, just to keep afloat, the fiat system has to pull a rabbit out of a hat every six months, and the pace of that is escalating.

66. 31:37Claim

    There is no valve that they can shut off. They can go from victim to winner in a matter of hours. If they don't do that, they are making a choice.

67. 32:16Analogy

    When the personal computer came out, what would be the single best strategy that you could employ to be successful? Would it have been smarter to try and eke out 10% more efficiency in your typewriter, or to just flush all of that energy down the toilet and shift it all to the new system?

68. 33:21Claim

    The game is pivot before others. Because others will eventually get the same access to information that you have.

69. 33:58Quote

    How do you win harder? Well, you bet you get Bitcoin before other people realize, you keep the Bitcoin while other people realize that they are short, and you keep holding when that fear goes parabolic.

70. 33:58Quote

    Congratulations. You've won.