The Path to Bitcoin
Episodes / Era 7 · Vocabulary / Ep 119
Episode 119 · 1 May 2024 · 14:31

Short One

One good Bitcoin decision isn't enough, because holding is a decision you make again every day. Your stack rising or falling is the honest signal of whether you're still adding value to the extended order, and selling is a mistake you can't undo.

The one-minute version

What it argues against

The idea that a single smart purchase is enough, and selling with plans to buy back in later.

Ideas in this episode
You can't just make one good decision in Bitcoin, right?00:00
It's one number: is this not going up or is it going down? If it's going down, that's a red alert that something is going wrong. You are taking from the system. You are not providing to the system.04:32
Keeping the Bitcoin and making that one decision every day, make the one right decision, that's all you have to do is make the one right decision.11:41

Every passage, on the record.

  1. 00:00Quote

    You can't just make one good decision in Bitcoin, right?

  2. 00:51Reference

    That is the forcing function that it has in the extended order.

  3. 00:51Claim

    Even if you make one fantastic decision, which is I'm gonna allocate energy into this system, you have to make the decision to keep that energy in the system every single day. If you don't, your Bitcoin stack is going down.

  4. 00:51Claim

    It's never been easier to see if you are a net positive to the extended order: all you have to do is look at your Bitcoin number, your Bitcoin stack.

  5. 00:51Quote

    Is it going up or is it going down? If it's going up, you are producing value.

  6. 01:28Reference

    I think even in a hyperbitcoinized world where people stop taking paper, they will only take Bitcoin, right? You'll have to exchange services or products with someone to part with their Bitcoin.

  7. 01:28Claim

    You are useful; if not, you are not, right? The last 12 months or whatever time period you're looking at, when the stack is going down you're not useful. Even if the stack is going down, I think you should probably feel shitty, right? Because you aren't providing any value.

  8. 02:06Analogy

    Do you want to control, do you want to be able to zap around the world at the speed of light to anybody that needs it, for whatever price they're willing to pay that you determine?

  9. 02:06Idea

    How much energy do you want to control? Do you want to be able to zap it around the world at the speed of light to anybody that needs it, for whatever price they determine? How much do you need to sit on and then drain from?

  10. 02:06Claim

    How much do you need to sit on and then drain from? Would you just be happy sitting there draining from the system? Seems like you'd get tired of that, seems like it'd get old. Seems like it'd be more fun to see how much you could stack, right, just for shits and giggles.

  11. 02:44Analogy

    This is where you have to be a little bit of a psychopath, right? A little bit of a sociopath. You get into the system and it's like, well, I can do all these things with this Bitcoin, right? That's the transformation that takes place.

  12. 02:44Quote

    The the real unlock here is that I've made a good decision, and to keep reaping the benefits of that great decision, I need to make the same good decision every day that I wake up, forever, going forward into the future.

  13. 03:27Quote

    It's really hard making one good decision. One day kind of easy. Well, not easy.

  14. 03:27Claim

    Except it's not real easy to do that, or else a shitload of the OG Bitcoiners would still be around, right? They're not.

  15. 04:00Claim

    After you understand the system, after you understand what it sets you up for, you're basically building a foundation for the next level of the extended order. We haven't been able to reach it before. There's been a ceiling; now that ceiling has been taken away, and now we have a new base level that we're gonna be launching this attack on entropy from.

  16. 04:32Quote

    It's one number: is this not going up or is it going down? If it's going down, that's a red alert that something is going wrong. You are taking from the system. You are not providing to the system.

  17. 04:32Prediction

    Once hyperbitcoinization sets in, we're on a Bitcoin standard and the hurdle rate is lower than it is now, and you can generate more returns in Bitcoin terms outside of Bitcoin than inside of Bitcoin. Then that's where the fun starts.

  18. 04:32Prediction

    The people that are early to Bitcoin will be the people who will be able to take advantage of the time just after that hurdle rate gets low enough to look outside of Bitcoin. The people who were late to Bitcoin, they're still gonna be trying to catch up in Bitcoin terms.

  19. 06:02Open question

    If you have a whole shitload of free, unconstrained energy that you can send anywhere around the world, what you need to be looking for is opportunities: where am I going to allocate that energy towards? What's the best decision-making framework? What are the models for energy allocation? Are you gonna study that now, or wait until after it happens?

  20. 06:38Claim

    It can't go away. It's not moving anywhere. Nobody's shutting it off. We know that to be the case.

  21. 06:38Prediction

    We know that you probably early now hold what will be thought of then, say a decade out from now, as an enormous bag of Bitcoin, which means that you can wield a tremendous amount of energy and zap it to anybody around the world, anywhere, anytime. That's going to be a useful thing.

  22. 07:08Prediction

    Ten years from now, when the floodgates open and there are opportunities, how can I best channel the Bitcoin to grow the stack as quickly as possible and for as long as possible?

  23. 07:08Claim

    That's the way the system will work: it makes the extended order more efficient. A more efficient extended order equals better opportunities, a transformation of energy. Those entities will exist, knowing where to look for those things.

  24. 07:56Claim · condensed

    If you're living in the fiat clown world and you're having to continue to do your job, is that really the best use of your time right now? Isn't it better to get smarter and understand decision-making and energy allocation and enterprise, entrepreneurship, business?

  25. 08:33Quote

    We know exactly how this is going to play out. We know that there will be that time when everyone realizes, fuck, the gig is up, and everyone rushes into Bitcoin.

  26. 08:33Claim

    The rules are set in stone, the Bitcoin protocol operates the way that it does from the very first block that was mined, right?

  27. 09:04Prediction

    This is the way the system is set in place. It's not going to change. We know that to be the case. It's going to outcompete the fiat system.

  28. 09:04Analogy

    We're already strapped in. We've got the seatbelt fastened. It's too late to get off the thing. It's too late to tinker with the thing.

  29. 09:36Quote

    It's already going, it's gone. It's to the moon now. Once we get to the moon, we're gonna get there before anybody else, and nobody else even knows that that is the destination.

  30. 09:36Prediction

    Congratulations if you're listening to this anytime before, probably, I don't know, 2040. Guess what? You're winning, right? You made the right decision. You got lucky, you found this thing, you found Bitcoin, good for you.

  31. 10:19Analogy

    Now we're fucking, now we're playing 40 chess. You don't even know how to play checkers, look at you, dumbass.

  32. 10:19Claim · condensed

    It's scary how unrelenting Bitcoin is. It's just going to keep going, it doesn't matter.

  33. 10:55Claim

    It won't slow down if you fall off the back. There's no do-overs. There's none, none of this: you make one improper decision, one decision that is less efficient than another one, and you're never getting that Bitcoin back.

  34. 10:55Prediction

    Is the thousand X gonna come from Bitcoin, or is the is is the hundred X in the next 20 years gonna come from Bitcoin, and the thousand X is gonna come from the reprice of everything? If you have Bitcoin you can buy the reprice; if you don't have Bitcoin you can't buy the reprice.

  35. 11:41Quote

    Keeping the Bitcoin and making that one decision every day, make the one right decision, that's all you have to do is make the one right decision.

  36. 11:41Analogy

    The scary bit is one wrong decision and you're fucked in the Bitcoin world, that Bitcoin is gone and it's never coming back, and you're not gonna be able to catch up to the train once it's left the station.

  37. 12:13Analogy

    That's the trope that you hear from every OG Bitcoiner: you spend your Bitcoin thinking you're gonna be able to buy back in, you can't, because you're underestimating just how fast the snowball is rolling down the hill, just how much energy is being pumped into the system from every entity inside of the extended order who is clued into the system.

  38. 12:13Claim

    Everyone is finding that out around the world at the exact same time, and they're rushing in. You can't fathom the number of people that are pushing into the system, the demand that is coming, and it's only gonna get more and more and more.

  39. 13:13Claim

    How do I position myself to take advantage of the complete reprice? I'm gonna need Bitcoin to be able to participate in the reprice. What do I need to be successful in the reprice? I probably need skills or knowledge about how to best allocate energy.

  40. 13:58Open question

    So now what should you do, if you have all this energy, all this potential energy in the future? What should you do? We'll probably learn, probably learn how to allocate it. What are some of the smart moves, what are some of the dumb moves?