A Life’s Wager

Every passage, on the record.

1. 00:00Claim

   This is peak life transformation ability. It has never been higher than it is now. Yes, is it peak clown world as well? Yes. There's more information out there, there's more noise to add to the system, of course.

2. 00:00Idea

   The strategy that is most likely to end with you becoming a billionaire is doing nothing. The most value that you can add to everyone around you is to do absolutely nothing. That is how efficient life has become at generating information, that the most efficient thing that you can do with your energy is to do nothing with it.

3. 00:00Quote

   The most value that you can add to everyone around you is to do absolutely nothing.

4. 00:00Reference

   To show you just how efficient the extended order has become, or the participants that make up the extended order that emerge from the complexity, that is you can become a billionaire by doing nothing.

5. 01:02Claim

   It only works in Bitcoin, and it works because you doing nothing means that you are not misallocating your energy. Life is so prone to misallocating energy that the discovery of a way that removes the possibility of you misallocating your energy results in the highest percentage outcome of becoming incredibly successful, and by successful I mean being able to control large, almost unfathomable amounts of energy.

6. 01:02Claim

   Satoshi discovered a way to make information scarce and rival. What had been non-rival becomes rival. He discovered a way to share information in a unique way that was not possible before, it was always out there, no one ever knew how to do it.

7. 02:00Claim

   We hadn't built the tools, the information hadn't been generated, the order was not maintained, not formed through the chaos. There was nothing there, then there was something, and as soon as that something was there it opened up a portal that allowed you to do things you could not do before. The people that did the things that couldn't be done before, before other people, they win, they win by a lot.

8. 02:33Analogy

   You give a bar of gold to your neighbor. You don't have the bar of gold, you don't have the order, you don't have the information anymore, your neighbor does have it now. Imagine you could do that without physically handing it to your neighbor. Would that be of any benefit to the extended order, who is guided by the prices in the economy for allocating energy, if you were able to share information and make it rival?

9. 02:33Quote

   You can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't have your secret and share it too. That's Bitcoin.

10. 02:33Idea

    The private key is a string of numbers that only you know, and only you know them because if someone else knows them, someone else knows the secret, and if someone else knows the secret those are no longer your Bitcoin. Right, they might be in the same address, but they're not yours because someone else can control them. So you get told the secret and then your job is to keep that secret for as long as possible, and that is the doing nothing. You're keeping a secret, you get rewarded by not sharing that secret.

11. 04:03Idea

    For it to be sent to a new address it must no longer be in the old address, and this results in the perfect peace of mind for the recipient and for the sender. There is no confusion.

12. 04:03Quote

    There is no confusion. There is no maybe this happened, maybe that happened. It's either there or it's not, and if it is there then it's not somewhere else.

13. 04:52Claim

    You can change your life in a very real way by adopting Bitcoin as your unit of account, and it's never been easier from an energy perspective to get ahead in life, to start with less and end with more.

14. 06:04Claim

    This is the ultimate advantage over all of the peers around you if you're listening to this podcast, I don't know, anytime in the near future, or a decade out. Every other time in history, to have an extreme advantage over other energy transformers has always been incredibly costly, it has always placed the burden of energy on the individual to maintain that extreme advantage. In this case, none of the burden is placed on the individual, the only thing the individual has to do is keep the secret.

15. 07:27Prediction

    This window will be closed in the future, who knows how long in the future, but it will be closed. The vast majority of the people that will ever listen to this podcast will not be able to take advantage of this, they will look back on this time as bizarre as we look back on doctors leeching folks to clean their blood to make them healthier.

16. 08:05Analogy

    That is how bizarre this will seem, so while those people might not be able to take advantage of it, hopefully knowing that it was there at least for a brief moment in time will hopefully remind the extended order of the future that information compounds and life will find a way.

17. 08:05Quote

    Bitcoin is a revolution of energy and thus power in the extended order.

18. 09:12Analogy

    They were sure of it, they were so sure of it that they bet their well-being on it, all of the access that they have to energy to ensure their future survival. That is the opposite side of the order book when it comes to Bitcoin.

19. 09:12Claim

    The default position for not becoming aware of this information, of exposing yourself to this information and then changing future action, the default position is that you're on the losing team. You're on the team that has already lost, you just haven't walked off the field completely.

20. 10:42Prediction · condensed

    Either bitcoin wins, or it doesn't. I'm telling you it will. There are very clear measures of whether or not I'm right.

21. 10:42Open question · condensed

    You will be the judge in the future, either bitcoin wins or it doesn't. There are very clear measures of whether or not I'm right, and the scoreboard will still be here for anyone to see.

22. 11:27Analogy

    They couldn't see the water being sucked down towards the ocean to fuel the impending tsunami of energy that will come to early Bitcoin adopters, right, the Bitcoin is at the bottom of the gravity well, it will suck in everything else.

23. 11:27Quote

    This is not a prediction into the future. This is a retelling of history.

24. 11:27Claim

    The lack of understanding will result in the most severe financial pain, the most severe energy pain that anyone in the extended order has ever experienced, and the opportunity cost of not exposing yourself to this information and taking the time to compute and understand is going to be monumental.

25. 12:21Reference

    If you are the Winklevoss twins you could have bought Bitcoin when it was poorly understood, that's it. Put 11 million dollars in, now I have five billion dollars. What did I do? They started a company, the company added something to the bottom line, not much.

26. 12:21Claim

    You could have done nothing, all the time you spent working on that company you could have done nothing, zero, and the returns would have been as good.

27. 12:21Idea

    A unique property that we don't often talk about has been the, I don't know, the crystal ball effect that it happens with Bitcoin, if you look into the recent past what you see is a picture of the future.

28. 13:12Prediction

    If you bought Bitcoin in 2020 and you waited 11 years, did you make a billion dollars off 11 million? Maybe not. But you just wait a little bit longer, I don't know, but I don't think that you have a better way to make a billion dollars.

29. 13:49Claim

    The only question that you have to ask yourself is: do I have the information and the energy necessary to generate future information that will be more valuable than this thing where I can do nothing and generate a billion dollars.

30. 13:49Reference

    It's like any other well-known investor, right, if Bill Miller buys the Amazon IPO and never sells it, what has he actually done?

31. 14:19Idea

    He identified an opportunity to give energy to an allocator who was going to look after that energy and return more in the future. He gave, now he took energy and gave it to a very specific person, it just so happened that he gave it to a person that was an incredible energy allocator. That seems infinitely more difficult than giving it to everyone and letting them all sort each other out for who's going to be the best, most capable at returning future energy.

32. 14:58Reference

    Remember a couple of months ago I was talking about the book, the missing billionaires, and reading through that book, I think we might be massively underestimating our gifts in the art of investing, especially early Bitcoin adopters.

33. 15:32Quote

    I think we, I think we might be massively underestimating our gifts in the art of investing, especially early Bitcoin adopters.

34. 15:32Claim

    All I have to do is look around and find the strategy for winning that is least likely to fail, and then put that plan in place for as long as possible, and eventually I win. At first I win very slowly, and then gradually I win much more rapidly.

35. 15:32Claim

    A million dollars in 1900 invested in the US stock market would equate to thirty billion dollars in 2012.

36. 16:16Claim

    There were 4,000 families that had a million dollars in energy that they could allocate to investments like that in 1900. If those millionaire allocators had the average number of kids, and their kids had the average family size all the way until today, that should mean we should have 30 billionaire families spawned from each original millionaire, times the 4,000 original allocators, which means we should have 120,000 billionaire families, yet in 2012 there were only about 400.

37. 17:45Quote

    You just do the thing that works all the time and then do it forever.

38. 18:26Quote

    Well, obviously the answer is it's simple, but it's not easy.

39. 19:02Claim

    If a black swan happens, this history is erased from the future path of the extended order and life finds another way, it's another path, this is a dead end to the river. But imagine if we're not wrong, imagine calling it beforehand.

40. 19:42Quote

    Everybody, everybody that doesn't know this information is the sucker at the table, and we know all of this stuff.

41. 19:42Analogy

    Everybody that doesn't know this information is the sucker at the table.

42. 20:12Analogy

    I know Warren Buffett talks about not having to swing at every pitch, but this thing, this is on a tee, right, this is on a Fisher Price tee and the ball is the size of a watermelon.

43. 20:12Reference

    I know Warren Buffett talks about not having to swing at every pitch, but this thing, this is on a tee.

44. 20:55Reference

    It is a bit like Bill Miller today, right, people think somebody like Bill Miller, or any of the investors, they make these great allocations, he's great because he's wealthy right, he's made a large chunk off of one call. But how about instead of one call amongst many, I just made one. Instead of missing 90% of the time, what if I just hit once?

45. 21:26Claim

    You can't plug nothing into Bitcoin, you have to plug energy into Bitcoin, except that every day the amount that you have to plug in to be successful grows higher and higher and higher, so the people that see this earlier, they have to plug in less energy at the start. That's the huge leverage bit here, and why it won't work for you in the future, because everyone will know this and you'll have to plug in a shitload of energy.

46. 21:26Prediction · condensed

    You miss this window, unfortunately for you, there'll probably be other things that you can take advantage of that I can't, but everyone will know this and you'll have to plug in a shitload of energy, so much energy that you're going to be working your entire life to create the value necessary to plug into the network.

47. 21:26Quote

    Anything on top of that was gravy.

48. 22:30Quote

    I just want to see if I was right or not.

49. 24:42Quote

    My bet is I kicked the shit out of every other model that was out there.

50. 25:19Prediction

    It means that the vast majority of you will also screw this up. It means that you will not make it, you will make a wrong decision along the way, and you'll forget the simplest strategy is what wins, especially when you have the high ground like we have the position of control, we have the energy efficient model for operating in the world.

51. 25:50Analogy

    If you could travel back in time to the year 2016 and you could buy a Bitcoin at 600 dollars apiece, what is the rational amount that you should buy? Obviously it's as much as you could possibly get your hands on. Now imagine you didn't know when you're going to return to the future, at any moment you could be zapped back to the present day and any Bitcoin you didn't buy, that opportunity would be gone forever. How frantic would your buying be?

52. 25:50Claim

    My guess is that you would be laser focused on Bitcoin, nothing but Bitcoin, why, because you know the future and you have information of a higher quality than all of those around you. You need to act on that information.

53. 26:33Prediction

    The idea there is that the number of Bitcoin you'll be able to control is constantly diminishing. It may bounce up and fall down, but over time the one rule is that you will get less in the future than you can get right now.

54. 27:16Claim

    If it was true then it's true now, and if it's true now it's going to be true in the future. If it's true in the future that means I get less sats per dollar forever, that number is going to go down forever. So everything that I have that is in dollars that I don't need is wasted.

55. 27:16Analogy

    If I want to put myself in the best position for the future, what should I do? I should take everything from dollars and put it into sats, because the sats aren't melting.

56. 27:16Quote

    The sats aren't melting.