The Path to Bitcoin
Episodes / Era 8 · The discovery / Ep 141
Episode 141 · 13 Dec 2024 · 25:14

Be Like Rambo

The big unlock from Bitcoin comes from using it: measure every decision by whether you end up with more or less Bitcoin, then borrow against it, selling at the liquidation price instead of the market price. That keeps you long Bitcoin and short the dollar.

The one-minute version

What it argues against

Still valuing the dollar, and treating Michael Saylor's 'never sell' advice as the whole strategy instead of its starting point.

Ideas in this episode
The North Star for life in the 21st century will be, do I end up with more or less Bitcoin if I engage in X or Y activity, X or Y transformation.01:48
Spending Bitcoin is actually sharing Bitcoin.13:57
If it's not yours, you don't have it. If you don't have the secret, someone else has the secret and you don't have the Bitcoin.24:51

Every passage, on the record.

  1. 00:00Claim · condensed

    No-coiners or people that are just new to Bitcoin think that they have something good; that is the hardest habit for them to break out of, because it has been with them their entire lives, but it's essential to overcome it to maximize the use they can get out of the tool of Bitcoin.

  2. 00:35Quote

    You don't have something good. You think the dollar is what you want. You thought that and you were wrong. What you crave is dog shit. You want more of that dog shit. That's what you think that you want. But it's hot garbage. It's worthless.

  3. 01:13Claim

    The thing that will be most beneficial to you is using Bitcoin, the 21 million, as a measuring stick for how well you are performing your transformations in the real world. It's not hodling, it's not doing all of those things, they won't be the massive increase in efficiency that affects your life.

  4. 01:13Idea

    That is the true measuring stick. The thing that is going to be most beneficial to you is using Bitcoin, the 21 million, as a measuring stick for how well you are performing your transformations in the real world.

  5. 01:48Quote

    The North Star for life in the 21st century will be, do I end up with more or less Bitcoin if I engage in X or Y activity, X or Y transformation.

  6. 01:48Claim

    The biggest efficiency bump from Bitcoin doesn't come from the buying, it comes from the using; you use it as a measuring stick against all utility in the extended order, and what drives an increase in fiat is not the same as what drives an increase in Bitcoin, which is a good thing.

  7. 02:24Claim · condensed

    Every decision, every energy allocation, gets referenced against one question: do I end up with more Bitcoin or less if I do X or Y. Choosing correctly more often than not means your life will be better off and you will have more fitness to tackle the unforeseen, unknowable future.

  8. 02:58Claim · condensed

    This isn't contained to biological life: on a Bitcoin standard, Bitcoin will accumulate where order is highest, meaning the most competent value provider gets the most Bitcoin, even though that's not true yet at the beginning, since some people just space-cadeted into abnormally large holdings.

  9. 03:32Claim · condensed

    As shitcoins go to zero and everyone realizes Bitcoin is not going to die, people will trade for it just because it's going to win, and eventually it flows to whoever provides the most value, who generates the most order.

  10. 04:07Claim · condensed

    The digital world needs Bitcoin to decide what information to produce; the real question for AI is not capability but direction, what its goals are, how it problem-solves, how it identifies problems, whether it can generate creativity. It will face the same issues as biological life.

  11. 04:39Claim · condensed

    A super-smart, self-sovereign AI would quickly realize that relying on others to stick around is a hole in the system; if it were the smartest thing to ever exist, it would immediately look to plug that gap by becoming energy independent.

  12. 05:10Claim · condensed

    The answer to what AI will optimize for is Bitcoin: if it has Bitcoin, no one can stop it from trading for the energy it needs. CBDCs could physically constrain a rogue AI by controlling the pipelines for value exchange, but the physical world can't stop an AI running on Bitcoin.

  13. 05:10Idea

    If it has Bitcoin, no one can stop it from trading for the energy that it needs. The answer to what AI will optimize for is Bitcoin.

  14. 05:46Quote

    You can't cross a chasm in two small leaps.

  15. 05:46Analogy

    One of my favorite quotes about leaps forward in efficiency is: you can't cross a chasm in two small leaps. Either the information that has been generated is more useful than any other alternative or it is not. We've either crossed the chasm or we haven't; if we didn't make it, we're falling down the side of the cliff forever.

  16. 06:55Claim · condensed

    At this stage, past evidence makes it appear as though there was a real chance that we are correct about Bitcoin, even though there aren't that many people who actually believe that, or believe they're right.

  17. 06:55Prediction

    I think Bitcoin could hit 200,000 this cycle, because everybody knows what 200,000 means and how that eventually trickles back to what it is valued at.

  18. 07:27Claim · condensed

    Saying '200,000 this cycle' gets a lot more traction in polite company than saying Bitcoin is going to eat the world and grow beyond the measurement of the dollar tool you use now, even though the second statement is closer to what he actually believes.

  19. 08:01Prediction

    There will be no dollar equivalent for where we are going. Either it works or it doesn't; if it works, there's no destination for total value, no end destination, it's going up forever.

  20. 08:01Claim · condensed

    If Bitcoin's value has no end destination, the result is that you won't need nearly as much of it as you think you do, because right now you measure yourself against others without seeing just how early you actually are.

  21. 08:35Claim · condensed

    Less than 1 percent is the figure to keep in front of your mind. The few who knew before you have already reached escape velocity given enough time exposed to the Bitcoin system; that's why you feel late even to people you don't know personally.

  22. 08:35Reference

    The few that knew before you, guess what? Given enough time exposed to the Bitcoin system, they have already reached escape velocity.

  23. 09:07Quote

    Because Bitcoin is better at 100,000. It's better at a million. It'll be better at 10 million. Those numbers are all just made up gobbledygook. The thing that you can't make up is the stack.

  24. 09:07Analogy

    You are strapped to the same rocket. You will go just as far if you don't sell your seat. Those numbers are all just made up gobbledygook. The thing that you can't make up is the stack. That has to be real.

  25. 09:37Claim · condensed

    Actually getting to conviction is a long process: identify the problem, understand the solution is money, understand how money solves the problem, separate the physical aspects of early money from the real tool of money which is information, see why Bitcoin is an improvement, learn what happens when money improvements get adopted, and only then can you project forward.

  26. 10:41Claim · condensed

    Knowing Bitcoin is going to win, and not stopping at knowing it's going to a million dollars, is more powerful than Bitcoin already being at a million, because you can use that information now to live a better life and end up with more Bitcoin.

  27. 11:15Open question

    I think this is really the next big step that the Bitcoin space will begin to realize, and you'll see more content around this, because it's understandable why the shift hasn't happened already.

  28. 11:15Claim · condensed

    The community is doing a great job on beginner content about understanding Bitcoin, and it's only getting better; the untapped frontier, where the surface has only begun to be scratched, is not understanding Bitcoin but using Bitcoin.

  29. 11:46Claim · condensed

    Hodling is using Bitcoin, you're allowing the tool to find the person most in need of the energy you've plugged into the system, but hodling will eventually have diminishing returns.

  30. 12:21Claim · condensed

    When I say using Bitcoin, I'm talking about bringing about the transformations in the world that you, as the holder, would like to see, which is different from just letting the tool of information generation work through hodling.

  31. 12:21Reference

    I, more than anyone, I think Michael Saylor has done so much good for knowledge in the space. But this might be the one idea where we might diverge.

  32. 12:51Claim · condensed

    You don't sell your Bitcoin, it's going up forever, so selling is the dumb thing to do; you're not some Wall Street trader who's going to time the markets, every time you've sold Bitcoin has probably not been that bright.

  33. 13:25Claim · condensed

    What is not going up forever is your own personal biological clock; you only have so many state changes, so many opportunities to perform transformations. Michael Saylor has the advantage of already being a billionaire pre-Bitcoin, with all the houses and toys he wanted, which most people do not have.

  34. 13:57Quote

    Spending Bitcoin is actually sharing Bitcoin.

  35. 14:28Claim · condensed

    In order to share Bitcoin in the first place, you have to share the secret; you can't share Bitcoin without giving up that secret, and that's not the same as selling something useful for nothing, taking profit as some digit on a screen.

  36. 15:02Claim · condensed

    You have insider information, you can choose to ignore it or learn to use it. There's a good way and a bad way to access the value increase in your Bitcoin: the good way you end up with the things you wanted and more Bitcoin, the bad way you end up with some of the things you wanted and less Bitcoin.

  37. 15:32Prediction · condensed

    If what we're talking about is true, one million is not crazy, 10 million is not crazy, the shitcoin (the dollar) is going to zero relative to Bitcoin.

  38. 16:04Analogy · condensed

    Say you have 10 Bitcoin and want to access 100,000 dollars. Sell one Bitcoin at market and you're short a whole Bitcoin plus the tax burden. Instead, take a loan against your Bitcoin at the liquidation price and there's nothing that says you have to top up if there's a cascading price and forced liquidation; you keep the upside if the price never gets there.

  39. 17:40Claim · condensed

    Who is brave enough to short Bitcoin in the lending space? These lenders understand what Bitcoin is well enough to lend against it as collateral, yet they take the roughly 15 percent they can get on a fiat loan rather than the 60 percent a year they could have gotten just sitting in Bitcoin.

  40. 18:51Claim · condensed

    Taking one of these loans is being short the dollar and long Bitcoin at the same time; on any scale, short the dollar, long Bitcoin has been the winning playbook for the last 15 years.

  41. 18:51Idea

    You want to know how to get ahead in the last 15 years? Short the dollar, long Bitcoin. That's it. The more that you can short, the better. The more you can go along, the better.

  42. 19:25Claim · condensed

    Your loan to value ratio on a Bitcoin-backed loan is a reflection of your confidence in Bitcoin: go higher LTV if you're sure, lower LTV if you're not, and rates and platform limits should be expected to come down over time.

  43. 20:27Quote

    That's it. That's the whole thing. That is the E equals MC squared of this world. That is the ultimate compression of all the information in the space. If you like winning, use Bitcoin to short dollars.

  44. 20:27Analogy

    Use Bitcoin to short dollars via dollar-denominated debt. That is the E equals MC squared of this world, the ultimate compression of all the information in the space.

  45. 21:31Quote

    You are the Rambo operating inside of the economy. Nobody can fuck with you. No one can stop you. You are too powerful. You are outside the control of the system if you have gotten to that point.

  46. 21:31Analogy

    You have maxed out all of your in-game avatar attributes, hundreds across the board in everything. You are the ultimate financial weapon, wielding information to generate maximum order in the universe with this strategy. You are the Rambo operating inside of the economy.

  47. 21:31Idea

    You are basically the Rambo operating inside of the economy. Nobody can fuck with you. No one can stop you. You are too powerful. You are outside the control of the system if you have gotten to that point.

  48. 22:05Claim · condensed

    You have to understand Bitcoin first and then use Bitcoin: use it to short dollars, since dollars are going down forever, and find every intelligent way to maximize your shortness rather than being short Bitcoin and long the dollar.

  49. 22:35Claim · condensed

    Spending Bitcoin is sharing it with people around you who provide value and utility, and you get the choice; nobody can steal that choice from you the way they can in the legacy system, and that is the entire goal of the system.

  50. 23:07Claim · condensed

    The price you should be watching is not the spot market price, it's the liquidation price of the loan you're going to take, because that's what you're really selling for; if you do that ten times and only win once, you're still infinitely better off than selling outright.

  51. 24:51Quote

    If it's not yours, you don't have it. If you don't have the secret, someone else has the secret and you don't have the Bitcoin.

  52. 24:51Claim · condensed

    The one thing you don't want to give up in any of this is custody; definitely don't put yourself in a situation where you are giving up the secret.