Kabuki Theatre

Every passage, on the record.

1. 00:00Analogy

   It's like watching a plane crash in slow motion. It hasn't hit the ground yet, but you can predict the future. And it's a half a second away in real time from happening, but you're watching it in super slow motion.

2. 00:00Prediction

   Bitcoin is obviously going to win. It's going to win by a million fucking miles. It has won for the last 15 years and it's going to end.

3. 00:00Claim

   The way that you are measuring inside the system of anything else gaining value is wrong and inaccurate.

4. 00:36Claim

   The world is getting significantly more efficient at generating order and knowledge, and you're not going to be able to keep up if you don't recognize that.

5. 00:36Idea

   If you have the ability to generate video at near real time of things that are interesting to people, you get to test it over and over again, anywhere in the world, to suck in someone and squeeze their hard earned energy out of them, the order that they've transformed in the physical world.

6. 01:31Claim

   The people that don't recognize this are going to be the ones that end up handing over their hard earned order to individuals who just have leverage on their side and who are going to be able to do this forever.

7. 01:31Claim

   As information becomes available, those people that take advantage of it early on are going to be significantly better off, especially in a world of absolute scarcity, which we haven't seen before.

8. 02:04Claim

   Even in moderately scarce environments, you see that the first movers have a huge advantage.

9. 02:04Quote

   You're still so early. You're still so early for listening to this right now. It's hard getting fabulously wealthy in slow times. And it's going to take longer than you think.

10. 02:04Claim

    Every single price prediction, every time, if you spend any amount of time on the internet listening to random bots or even real people back and forth about price prediction, take your price predictions and shove them up your ass. You have no idea what you're talking about.

11. 02:39Quote

    Mowers, is it going to be Q4? Is it going to go 80,000 and then we're going to go up? Nobody fucking knows. Nobody knows.

12. 03:21Claim · condensed

    The people that made those terrible, horrible bets have retired and they're dead now, or they're off living their best life somewhere, taking advantage of all the pleb slop.

13. 03:21Claim

    People don't have time to learn any of this stuff. You got to work. Everybody's got to work.

14. 03:52Analogy

    Just getting run over by a fucking monumental train, like the size of the Empire State Building, mowing people down left, right and center. It's called efficiency. We needed you to pick potatoes before. Now we don't. It's over.

15. 04:54Claim

    If one of the 24 primary broker dealers goes down, they all go down. It's a cascade effect.

16. 04:54Claim

    That incentivizes us to go as crazy as possible, because if we don't get the dog shit loans, somebody else will, and it's basically make as many shitty loans as you possibly can, as fast as you can, before any of the banks end up failing.

17. 06:06Claim

    You know how many people care? Fucking donuts. Nobody cares, because they're all struggling, they're trying to keep their head above water.

18. 06:40Event

    We got artificial intelligence that can create videos, a thousand videos a second of your pet getting run over by a semi truck, and we're going to flood the internet with that and see what people like watching more.

19. 06:40Reference

    This is the point of the entire thesis of Jason Lowery comes true, and how many people saw it coming?

20. 07:15Claim

    The hundred people that bought that book, even a hundred people that bought that thing, they don't even understand what they're reading.

21. 07:15Idea

    What is this cost benefit of attack versus defense, how does this actually work, what's the benefit versus the cost of attack? That's the cost of falsification versus the cost of preservation.

22. 07:15Quote

    How are you going to discern what is real in an age of abundance where you can have a thousand Tesla robots jerk you off all day long?

23. 07:48Open question

    How are you going to be able to tell the real from the fake and will it actually matter?

24. 07:48Claim · condensed

    You have people all over the world who are highly incentivized to create as much fake shit as they can to try and siphon from you all of the energy that you have generated up to that point.

25. 08:23Idea

    Wouldn't it be quite a feat if we could somehow tie the information that is being exchanged on the internet to the physical world so there was some cost to it. How could you possibly do that?

26. 08:23Analogy

    How could you tell if grandma's voice that's telling you she's been kidnapped by some Somali pirate actually needs the money? You're going to have a thousand people calling you. Why wouldn't they? They have nothing else to do.

27. 08:53Claim

    They have no other way of generating any amount of value, any order that is going to be anywhere near as efficient as the giga sized brains of the AI overlords. They're not going to be able to do it.

28. 09:29Claim

    The one video that your aunt uploaded of the dog falling into the pool, if I see that's successful, you know how many of those I can make in an hour? Thousands. And just drown out all of the signal with pure noise.

29. 09:29Claim

    Have a look at your algorithm on any social media versus anybody else's algorithm. You're living in a completely separate world. You don't know what time it is, you don't know what's going on.

30. 10:02Idea

    It's the only way we share information now, because it's more efficient, because we've compressed the entire physical universe into zeros and ones that we can't actually see.

31. 10:33Claim

    The physical states, the arrangements, the unique arrangements of physical ones and zeros, has to exist somewhere. It's not like in a cloud, the cloud is not a fake thing, it's a real thing. It's somebody else's computer and it's not yours.

32. 11:05Claim · condensed

    Even if you did come up with a way to tie information to physical cost, discount that thesis entirely, this will stop, AI will slow down. It makes no sense that it would slow down or stop at all.

33. 11:05Reference

    The Lindy effect that is life, what life is doing in the physical universe. Let's just say that that is miraculously going to slow down.

34. 11:36Claim

    Knowledge builds on knowledge, and we need every time that we introduce something that transforms the physical world in a repeatable pattern to hold on to and build off of it. The more of those foundations we have, the more things we're going to be able to build.

35. 12:07Claim

    Look at the last 15 year trajectory that Bitcoin has been on, that absolute scarcity has been on, relative to the rest of the world. The dollar is getting absolutely crushed.

36. 12:39Quote

    Bitcoin beat the shit out of everything. Absolutely everything murdered it by doing nothing.

37. 13:10Claim

    No one can change the state of it. Nobody. And that's useful. Why is that useful? Because we can change the state of everything else more efficiently, and we're going to continue to do that forever.

38. 13:10Analogy

    This is like being in Einstein's hometown when you hear about a paper that says gravity is no longer a force. It's 1905 or 1915, this guy's come up with an idea that gravity isn't a force. You look into it and go, I'm going to believe Newton, this curved spacetime thing is nonsense.

39. 13:44Claim

    Nobody has any idea what gravity is. They can't tell you the name of the next town over. And you think you're late to the game, that people are all of a sudden going to snap out of it and catch on. We're not surrounded by a bunch of Nobel laureates.

40. 14:16Prediction

    If you've discovered it now, it's going to keep going up. Bitcoin gives a flying fuck about a hundred thousand US dollar label that has been put on it.

41. 14:16Quote

    Bitcoin gives a flying fuck about a hundred thousand US dollar label that has been put on it.

42. 14:49Prediction

    You think the people that invested a thousand dollars in 2013 and now have a billion dollars in value in Bitcoin have just gone, let me look at the past twelve years, my thousand dollar investment kicked the shit out of everything else, and now's the time to cash out and buy the New York Yankees. How stupid would you have to be?

43. 15:58Quote

    The only thing that you know is that the system works. And the only reason that you know that is you look it up yourself. Don't trust anybody. Don't trust me. Don't trust some schmo on fucking social media.

44. 16:31Idea

    Is information that is constrained useful? Yes. How do we get more of that? How do we eliminate more noise and get more signal? And have we been doing that for the last four billion years? If a tool came along that allowed us to do more of that, it would win.

45. 17:03Claim

    I don't want to be in a system that does nothing but inject noise, because you're going to be significantly more inefficient.

46. 17:03Quote

    That's the trick you play on yourself as you get more educated on what Bitcoin is actually doing, you think, well, makes sense to me, other people have to know this. Nope. They don't know.

47. 17:34Analogy

    It's going to be like Elysium. You're going to have to be on a satellite orbiting the plebs and you're going to have to have huge fucking guns on that thing, and it won't even be guns, it'll be artificial intelligence jamming the frequencies of the rockets trying to get to you.

48. 17:34Reference

    It's going to be like Elysium.

49. 18:10Claim

    You think that you're trading against human beings right now on earth. That's not the competitor. The competitor that you have to be most worried about is artificial intelligence that is significantly smarter than you, saying, how do I manipulate this meat bag into giving me the Bitcoin?

50. 18:10Quote

    Never sell the Bitcoin. Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, never sell the Bitcoin and you will not lose.

51. 19:52Reference

    It's like, what's his name in the matrix. I give me the steak. Give me the steak. We're going to live forever.

52. 19:52Reference

    If you don't have Bitcoin, you're fucked. You're going to be on Tatooine when the death star rolls up and we're not going to think about you after that.

53. 20:32Analogy

    Those people are going to reach out their claws like a drowning person, just clinging onto anything that they could possibly get their hands on.

54. 20:32Claim

    You think people are going to like you for having Bitcoin, for having talked about it publicly? Are you shitting me? You better not have told anybody.

55. 21:02Claim

    They're going to come for you, and that'll be a service that you'll be willing to pay for. All signs point to people being super angry for a long, long time, resources running out and printing to infinity.

56. 21:02Analogy

    You're just sliding down like the curvature of space time. Just imagine millions and millions of people in the middle class, what's left of it, just sliding on this slope, trying to grab on, but the surface is just too slippery, and the numbers just increase faster, faster, faster.

57. 22:08Analogy

    Does anybody feel like caviar? How long until that gets normalized? There's only so many days you'd be shocked by it.

58. 23:13Claim

    How many images do we have to show, how many holographic images do we have to wrap around this person to make them think they're floating in a cloud of ecstasy, so we can just take it from them?

59. 23:13Quote

    Paint me another picture. Paint me a picture where we get less efficient, where we stop compressing the physical universe, where we stop the arrangement of the universe, pressing unique arrangements that aren't naturally there because of entropy flowing over the informational manifold.

60. 24:02Idea

    Unique arrangements that aren't naturally there because of entropy flowing over the informational manifold. That cannot be changed by just the thermal noise of reality.

61. 24:32Claim

    The bet is we are betting on something that has never happened before and doesn't look likely, or bet on something that has happened every day since the dawn of the universe. Not that difficult.

62. 25:13Claim

    You still think you're wrong listening to this now. You think, yeah, but there's a chance I'm a bit of a fucking dipshit, there's a chance that I just made this all up in my head.

63. 25:13Idea

    All of the energy in the TASOE that was built up over generations and generations and generations is going to be misallocated because that's the way the system is built.

64. 25:44Prediction

    I think that Bitcoiners win for a little bit. They win for a little bit.

65. 25:44Claim

    Maybe there's enough winning to escape velocity and not fall victim to it. But I don't think so. I think eventually people are going to wise up and go, I don't want this because it's worthless and all the bureaucracy surrounding it is drowning every bit of innovation you can possibly have.

66. 26:16Claim

    Those things will all flow to the edges where they can find gaps and actually breathe, and the leverage that one intelligent individual can now have is enormous.

67. 27:03Claim

    One person used to take a team of people, used to take hundreds of thousands of people. Now it's just about the energy that you can muster up, the compute that you can muster up. Who can do that the fastest?

68. 27:03Claim · condensed

    None of it, politics and economics and the federal reserve and whatever else in between, actually matters. None of it can stop it. Just sit around and wait.

69. 27:40Analogy

    Day to day, none of it matters. Like watching some Spanish telenovela, some soap opera, thinking, what are they going to do today, this really makes a difference. None of it makes a difference.

70. 28:45Claim

    The legions of people that are just completely obliterated will be wiped from your memory space. You won't even remember. To think that isn't going to happen is bananas.

71. 28:45Analogy

    Go back and look at how fast video games have progressed, graphics and the ability to shut out the entire physical universe from your sensory input and be in a completely virtual environment and just get lost in there.

72. 29:32Event

    Doubt they didn't $13 billion last night. Reverse repo.

73. 30:02Idea

    It's like a piggy bank for all of the other banks and they just make up the numbers on an Excel spreadsheet to keep everybody honest. Why do they do that? Because it's fucking Kabuki theater.

74. 30:02Event

    They just injected the second largest amount ever into this piggy bank because they were running so low.

75. 30:35Claim

    If the government is forcing these 24 banks to buy their dogshit paper with dollars, maybe they're selling the bonds to the banks, the banks have to give over the dollars, the dollars go into the government and the government spends it on absolute nonsense.

76. 31:05Quote

    Can I teleport it in my head to somebody on the other side of the world? Yep. Can anybody steal it from me? Nope. Can anybody hack it? Nope.

77. 31:05Claim

    Does it bridge the physical and the digital worlds so that the copying of digital information costs physical energy? Yep.

78. 31:39Reference

    He talks about it in the book, Jason Lowery, the whole analogy, the similarities with black powder or gunpowder.

79. 31:39Analogy

    People thought it was medicine at first. People thought Bitcoin was money at first. And then you realize, wait, this is the only way that you can tell that something is still physically costly in the real world.

80. 31:39Claim

    How can you tell illusion from reality? Energy, the cost, that's going to be the use case in the future.

81. 32:11Claim

    You think people are going to care about earning enough money to get me my McDonald's, when we have robots and artificial intelligence as capable as all the minds of humanity combined, processing at light speed? You think we're going to be concerned about mopping up the local motel? No, abundance.

82. 32:41Open question

    The problem is going to be resource allocation. There will still be supply and demand, but how are we going to be able to communicate that, how are we going to know what the system for allocating resources will be. Don't know. That would be an interesting problem to solve.