Nowhere Else to Go
Once the pain of money printing outruns hope, capital has nowhere to go but scarce goods like Bitcoin. Gulag prisoners broke their captors' hold by eliminating the informants who policed information, and breaking fiat's grip on monetary information makes this shift irreversible.
The one-minute version
Central banks that run monetary policy on suggestion and secrecy, controlling information the way the Gulag system did.
They operate on suggestion. They operate in a world where they are doing monetary policy by Kabuki theater.05:33
It takes energy to transform energy. Money is ultimate energy optionality.18:14
Bitcoin is truth. It disables bad actors from being able to tamper with reality. It is an honest mirror. The map is the territory, and from it will emerge the most powerful extended order ever known.22:28
Every passage, on the record.
- 00:00Event
Last podcast, I laid out how I thought adoption would come quicker as more pain set in. And as fate would have it, this was days before the United Kingdom Central Bank became the first major central bank to essentially fold and start the money printers again.
- 00:00Reference
The headline in the paper, almost word for word, mirrored what Satoshi had put in the original genesis block of the Bitcoin time chain. The headline read very similar, essentially a second bailout is coming for banks.
- 00:33Reference
Essentially Smoke has been filling the crowded theater that is the global extended order for years.
- 00:33Analogy
Essentially Smoke has been filling the crowded theater that is the global extended order for years. And those that have been paying attention, those that have been in the know for what to look out for, at least in the Western world, they understand that where there is smoke, there is fire.
- 01:04Claim
In various emerging markets, participants haven't had to rely on their smoke senses, but rather they have had a front row view of the fire itself. If they are somewhere like Argentina or Lebanon, Zimbabwe, Cyprus, these people, they understand what they are up against. They understand the ramifications. They understand what comes next.
- 02:38Claim
Once the normal individuals are put to so much pain that they can recognize that this is not normal, this is out of the ordinary, that is when the race is on. And at this point, people closest to the flame are almost beyond the point of return.
- 04:15Prediction
The United Kingdom is not an emerging market. If it can happen there, it will happen everywhere. It's simply a matter of time.
- 04:15Idea
They will devalue the currency siphoning transformed and stored energy from the participants of the economy to the bloat of the unproductive government. And they will squander it by returning less energy than it started with.
- 04:47Prediction
The real shit will hit the fan the moment the Fed will be forced to walk back rate rises and resume quantitative easing. And once they do this, once there is no year over year cost increase change except that it continues to rise, as in it doesn't decelerate, it actually quicken.
- 05:33Quote
They operate on suggestion. They operate in a world where they are doing monetary policy by Kabuki theater.
- 05:33Reference
They are doing monetary policy by Kabuki theater. They're saying we have these tools at our disposal. You should believe us.
- 06:06Claim
Energy is the true cost behind every good and you cannot print and redistribute real world energy.
- 06:39Quote
There is nowhere else to go except into scarce goods.
- 06:39Prediction
This is when people will start to realize that we are in a debt spiral and there is nowhere else to go except into scarce goods. And if the Fed pivots and things continue to get more expensive, it's the moment that chaos sets in, and the rush for the exit will be beyond anything we have seen before.
- 07:52Reference
I went back and reread the Gulag Archipelago by Alexander Solzhenitsyn. And, you know, it's a brutal read and he knows it. If you haven't read it, certainly your time would be better spent there than here.
- 08:23Analogy
The flip side of secrecy is lack of information. These prisons were run on a lack of information and fear by always keeping the prisoners unaware of what was next. The noise to signal was an ungodly ratio.
- 09:31Claim
In 1937, 1938, one in every 20 people were arrested in the Soviet Union, with even more being approached to work as snitches. Inside the Gulag system, the number of people approached to snitch on each other was even higher.
- 11:28Claim · condensed
For a period of time, the max sentence for what Solzhenitsyn calls the 58ers, a clause that was essentially for political dissidents, meant there was still hope. People were put away for three, five, 10 years for the most absurd reasons, and entire families were sent away because they knew someone who was sentenced as a 58er.
- 12:45Claim
The vast majority of people didn't make it out in 10 years because it was so hard, they were worked to the bone and they weren't fed. But that 10 years gave them hope that it was just a small enough sentence to be able to continue to battle on day by day.
- 13:21Reference
The major turning point in the book is that Stalin makes a fatal error that on the surface appeared to make his rule of fear even stronger. He changed the maximum sentence for the 58ers from 10 to 25 years.
- 13:21Claim
He changed the maximum sentence for the 58ers from 10 to 25 years, and the thinking being that no one would ever try to step out of line with a sentence of 25 years, because 25 years is most certainly a death sentence. Hope would be lost. It would completely crush the opposition.
- 14:28Quote
Pain was so strong. It was strong enough to force change for the first time.
- 14:58Claim
Out of the some 3000 prisoners, over the course of a few days, it only took the death of 12 snitches being murdered in the middle of the night for the entire camp to change.
- 15:29Claim
The guards and those in charge of the camps needed the snitches to provide them intel, but the snitches became fearful for their lives and the guards could not protect them 24/7. The snitches stopped willing to participate, and information could now start to flow freely for the first time.
- 16:38Claim
They had established trust by eliminating the noise, by eliminating individuals that would turn them in. They had freedom of speech inside of their own barracks, and a network of free flowing information began to build up.
- 17:09Analogy
Now, does that sound familiar? Right. The shift in the majority is coming. Bitcoin can be the system used to mount the attack.
- 17:09Claim
Remember what life is: the transformation of disorder into order, the pushing back of local entropy, organizing energy reserves to be made readily accessible. And what is a tool? A tool is just something that makes this process more efficient.
- 17:41Claim
Money is a tool that was created so that life could have access to more energy reserves. It does this by allowing the exchange of energy to be as efficient as possible. Without money, the extended order is less efficient. Money allows for specialization, which leads to increased productivity, which means more energy reserves to the whole.
- 18:14Idea
We are exchanging information for energy or information for information. It is the language of energy.
- 18:14Quote
It takes energy to transform energy. Money is ultimate energy optionality.
- 18:44Claim
How Bitcoin improves upon every piece of money tech before it is by making the information incorruptible and therefore building trust.
- 19:19Open question · condensed
One of Bitcoin's least talked about attributes is that it works almost exactly the opposite of how CBDCs are talked about, and this is an idea that I want to expand upon in the next podcast.
- 19:54Claim
In Bitcoin, you can impose a physical cost in the digital world. You can put a moat around your digital property that requires an attacker to spend physical, real world energy, and there is no way to fake the energy. It has to be exchanged, transformed in the real world.
- 19:54Analogy
CBDCs are often talked about as being able to be used by centralized forces to limit movement in the physical world by imposing digital constraints. In Bitcoin, it works the opposite way: you can impose a physical cost in the digital world.
- 21:27Analogy
Imagine every time we wanted to communicate, we had to go through a middleman, a chaperone of language. They would pass on the information for us. This is the current system with the language of value, with the language of energy.
- 21:27Quote
Money is a language. Money is language.
- 22:28Claim
The more that exchange happened, the more fidelity emerged on the true state of the world, the higher the signal to noise became. And if news could be constantly gathered and shared amongst the entire 3,000 strong population, they could become more powerful than their oppressors.
- 22:28Quote
Bitcoin is truth. It disables bad actors from being able to tamper with reality. It is an honest mirror. The map is the territory, and from it will emerge the most powerful extended order ever known.
- 23:04Prediction
The fiat world will make sure it has to, it is programmed to make sure it's bad enough to force those past the point of caring about how it works or why it works. It will only force action, and the action will ultimately lead to Bitcoin.