The Path to Bitcoin
Episodes / Era 4 · Bottom, and the seed / Ep 67
Episode 67 · 19 Dec 2022 · 18:03

NGU Technology

Number go up is energy go up: with supply fixed at 21 million, more energy chasing a fixed number of sats drives the fiat price higher, and the halvings only amplify that scarcity. Eventually price stops mattering and the story is energy.

The one-minute version

What it argues against

The fiat-minded view that halving cycles and price swings cause number go up.

Ideas in this episode
Bitcoin makes it possible for users to shield themselves from the stupidity of others.00:00
It's a full time job tracking where stolen, miscalculated energy will flow to next.16:51
Simply never exchange the UTXOs that you hold for energy in the future and you have benefited the most amount of people ever possible.12:32

Every passage, on the record.

  1. 00:00Claim

    No one can control Bitcoin, no one can change the supply or regulate transactions, and once you are in possession of Bitcoin, you are free from outside actors, and in Bitcoin everyone is an outside actor.

  2. 00:00Claim

    One of the genius moves that Satoshi managed to pull off was to leverage greed to incentivize sharing.

  3. 01:39Claim

    Anything that is cheaper to produce in energy terms will go down relative to Bitcoin, and everything will be cheaper to produce than Bitcoin.

  4. 02:12Claim

    Bitcoin is incredibly complex and difficult to understand for current generations with roots in the fiat era of understanding.

  5. 02:49Claim

    Education around money doesn't exist, and when it does, it is done so from false foundations, whether from malice or ignorance, but the results are the same.

  6. 03:22Claim

    Market participants misvalue Bitcoin because they are operating on partial information that clouds their ability to see future realities.

  7. 03:56Claim

    Extreme greed expressed by an individual results in more energy reserves for the extended order, because there is a fixed supply of Bitcoin and only a limited amount available to be secured.

  8. 05:35Claim

    The greed comes from rational actors searching for ways to maximize their own future access to energy reserves, in a world where everyone wants a piece of that energy for free.

  9. 06:08Claim · condensed

    Bitcoin allows you to share energy with the world without giving up the ability to pull it back anytime you need it, because it can't be stolen and you can always verify how much you have.

  10. 06:44Claim

    If everything outside Bitcoin is losing value year over year because the debt based legacy financial system demands it, rational individuals will look to place their energy in things that are not fiat based: precious metals, stocks, real estate.

  11. 07:15Claim · condensed

    As those alternative assets become crowded, their monetary premium swells far beyond real world production costs, resulting in speculative values, and the risk of holding them for energy allocation gets higher and higher.

  12. 07:50Claim · condensed

    Precious metals aren't digital, so they're hard to store and exchange, which leads to centralization, which is risk; stocks aren't scarce, they're centralized and can be manipulated by third parties, and they aren't bearer assets; real estate isn't mobile or fungible, which limits market size, and it's illiquid and subject to the regulations and taxes of its jurisdiction.

  13. 08:23Claim

    Every single factor means more risk, and more risk is bad; with more risk comes the possibility of less future energy reserves.

  14. 09:33Claim

    As a Bitcoin holder you are incentivized to share your energy for as long as possible, because it allows for exchange that increases total reserves at every occurrence; the exchange wouldn't happen if it didn't result in more energy out than in.

  15. 10:09Claim

    Every moment you aren't holding Bitcoin you are exposed to the alternative system, and that alternative system is bleeding energy at an almost unfathomable rate you can't shield yourself from.

  16. 10:41Claim

    Every other store of value is being manipulated because it can be, and the system needs to feed on itself with further debasement, borrowing from savers and rewarding debtors; Bitcoin can't be manipulated.

  17. 10:41Claim

    Energy reserves flow into the system trying to gain access while the number of spots remains fixed; competition drives up the energy levels necessary for exchange, and the barrier to entry goes up forever.

  18. 13:07Claim

    Halvening cycles are promoted by fiat minded investors as the cause of number go up, but in reality the halvenings simply amplify the results of the phenomenon; they squeeze from internally rather than externally.

  19. 13:38Claim

    The halvenings are a sneak preview of the future reality of absolute scarcity being introduced to a system that has never experienced it before.

  20. 13:38Claim

    Over a long enough time horizon we figure out ways to make things more efficiently, meaning less in and more out; anything that can be produced cheaper than Bitcoin will deflate in price, and that isn't just financial assets, it's everything: goods, services, food.

  21. 14:43Claim · condensed

    With more attention comes more demand, but the supply is fixed, which increases the fiat price for access; increased value drives volatility, which increases attention, and attention leads to more demand as adoption and acceptance grow.

  22. 15:45Claim

    More security means higher utility because trust is stronger; more nodes mean more decentralization as education improves, and more transactions mean more elimination of rival exchange.

  23. 16:51Claim

    The entire financial service sector exists because of the manipulation of money; their job is to see where the flows will end up.

  24. 17:24Claim · condensed

    Your claim can't shrink without your participation anymore; when you opt into Bitcoin, you take away others' ability to control your energy reserves.

  25. 17:24Claim

    Nobody can shield themselves from the reality that the legacy system is forced to rob from everyone to continue to operate, and people will only put up with it for so long.

  26. 00:33Prediction

    By the time this podcast is digitally unearthed in the future, many won't understand number go up or NGU because there won't be a dollar system to go down; it will be energy system go up, energy go up technology, it won't be NGU technology.

  27. 01:39Prediction

    The price of Bitcoin will go up forever when measured in dollars or any other fiat currency.

  28. 11:19Prediction

    The increase in efficiency means energy needs a home, and the best home is now clearly Bitcoin; the cycle repeats itself and the number goes up forever.

  29. 13:07Prediction

    There will come a time when the only way to access Bitcoin is with direct energy exchange rather than the fiat proxy; NGU until number is irrelevant, then it'll be energy goes up.

  30. 15:45Prediction · condensed

    As outside legacy exchange is outcompeted, smaller currencies will fail before big ones, and people fleeing those regimes will have the need and drive to seek out alternatives.

  31. 01:04Idea

    These elements all mean that Bitcoin will always increase in value, just utility or usefulness, or said another way, energy access will always increase to hodlers because of the dynamics of the system.

  32. 04:26Idea

    We know that those 21 million can expand and contract in utility to express the total amount of accessible energy available to participants in the network. The totality of the system is 21 million.

  33. 05:02Idea

    The only way to secure Bitcoin is to transform energy in the physical world and produce hashes until you solve for a block, thereby allocating yourself the block reward and getting property rights to the newly released coins, or trade with someone who has done the same.

  34. 08:58Idea

    There are only 21 million Bitcoin homes. Well, really, 2.1 quadrillion sats, and as more actors in the extended order realize the situation, more and more are willing to exchange more reserves for access to fewer sats. This means that as denominated in fiat terms, the value of sats will go up: more energy chasing fewer sats.

  35. 11:19Idea

    Because of the fixed monetary policy and absolute scarcity in the hard cap, Bitcoin as a tool can be used for the first time ever as an accurate measurement for everything else. This eliminates noise and amplifies signal, resulting in better energy allocation, which itself results in more reserves.

  36. 08:23Analogy

    It becomes a house of cards.

  37. 00:00Quote

    Bitcoin makes it possible for users to shield themselves from the stupidity of others.

  38. 02:12Quote

    Nothing about Bitcoin has changed. It is simply market participants reacting to information that they have available to them.

  39. 09:33Quote

    Bitcoin is begging you to share and rewarding you to do so.

  40. 14:09Quote

    Every day Bitcoin doesn't die represents another opportunity for rational actors to take notice.

  41. 16:51Quote

    It's a full time job tracking where stolen, miscalculated energy will flow to next.

  42. 17:24Quote

    The system is past its use by date and the value transfer is well underway.

  43. 17:59Quote

    So you come for the number go up tech and you stay for the revolution.

  44. 12:32Quote

    Simply never exchange the UTXOs that you hold for energy in the future and you have benefited the most amount of people ever possible.

  45. 00:33Reference

    So today on the podcast we're going to explore this idea by examining the NGU technology that is Bitcoin, that emerges from the system. NGU is a way the community expresses the end result of a number of different characteristics that emerge from Bitcoin.

  46. 14:09Reference

    The number go up isn't only about price in fiat dollar terms, remember, right, it's a catchy acronym that encompasses all the emerging phenomenon that come into existence because of what Bitcoin enables. Bitcoin creates a positive feedback loop outside of just price, and the NGU takes place in those domains as well.

  47. 03:22Reference

    Contact with an absolutely scarce element has never been experienced by the extended order.

  48. 15:13Reference

    More interest equals more business in the space, solving more problems, more creative destruction leads to more jobs.

  49. 01:39Event

    At the moment, the asset that is Bitcoin is appreciating somewhere south of 200% annually over the last 10 years. Yet we are in a 70% plus drawdown. I don't know what the exact number is, but let's assume it's north of 70%.